A 60-year-old alcoholic smoker abruptly develops high fever, shakes, a severe headache, and muscle pain. He initially has a dry, insignificant cough, but over the next few days he develops marked shoness of breath requiring assisted ventilation. Chest x-ray demonstrates homogeneous radiographic shadowing that initially involves the left lower lobe but continues to spread until both lungs are extensively involved. Culture of bronchoalveolar lavage fluid on buffered charcoal yeast extract (BCYE) demonstrates a coccobacillary pathogen. Which of the following is the most likely causative organism?